SCR Altach 1-1 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SCR Altach face Sturm Graz.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 15 as SCR Altach welcome Sturm Graz to CASHPOINT Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 November 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at CASHPOINT Arena, SCR Altach have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sturm Graz are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SCR Altach register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Sturm Graz in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Sturm Graz, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for SCR Altach.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 0–4 with Sturm Graz winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sturm Graz have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
SCR Altach in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 48% versus Sturm Graz 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 59% | Sturm Graz 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 0.85 xG and Sturm Graz 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.918 / defence 1.065 | Sturm Graz attack 0.978 / defence 0.641. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.744. Sturm Graz's defence strength of 0.641 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 SCR Altach games / 36 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 16% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 59%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 6.25 | Draw 4.17 | Sturm Graz 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: SCR Altach 70% | Sturm Graz 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 16% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 49% | xG SCR Altach 0.85 / Sturm Graz 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.918 / def 1.065 | Sturm Graz attack 0.978 / def 0.641 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.744 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Sturm Graz xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz kick off?
SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
SCR Altach 1 - 1 Sturm Graz.
Where is SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz part of?
SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 16% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 59% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SCR Altach and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Sturm Graz?
Record (3 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 0 | Sturm Graz 3W.
What form are SCR Altach and Sturm Graz in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 0.92x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.64x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (11.4%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
16%
6.12
24%
4.09
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.67
1.81
Sturm Graz xG
6.12
16%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
16%
6.14
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
3%
37.58
25%
3.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 12.6 | 11.4 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.81 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach come into this having played 46 games, going 11W 10D 25L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sturm Graz sit at 1.89 PPG from 46 outings (25W 12D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SCR Altach's home form reads 4W 7D 11L across 22 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Sturm Graz have taken 1.68 points per game from 22 outings (10W 7D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.87 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz in 63%.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 11W 10D 25L in their last 46 games (0.93 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 25W 12D 9L in their last 46 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.86 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.68 PPG.
Have SCR Altach or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
SCR Altach have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sturm Graz have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2022, when Sturm Graz won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SCR Altach
2
Draws
8
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Sturm Graz 2-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 54%, Sturm Graz 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SCR Altach) and 59% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz in 32%; SCR Altach have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of SCR Altach's games and 64% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SCR Altach's recent games and 59% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach and Sturm Graz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 15, as SCR Altach and Sturm Graz drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 0.85 xG and Sturm Graz 1.81 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sturm Graz landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.92 / defence 1.06 against Sturm Graz attack 0.98 / defence 0.64, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 16% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 59%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 59%, Sturm Graz 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.