SCR Altach 2-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Austria Vienna travel to CASHPOINT Arena to take on SCR Altach. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 September 2023, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SCR Altach at CASHPOINT Arena this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Vienna have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Austria Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Vienna have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SCR Altach at 1.30 PPG versus Austria Vienna's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, SCR Altach have won 1, Austria Vienna 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Austria Vienna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SCR Altach trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Austria Vienna trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 51% versus Austria Vienna 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 49% | Austria Vienna 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.21 xG and Austria Vienna 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.855 / defence 0.900 | Austria Vienna attack 0.749 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.610. Data: 29 SCR Altach games / 29 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 38% | Draw 31% | Austria Vienna 31%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Austria Vienna 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SCR Altach are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: SCR Altach 40% | Austria Vienna 70%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 38% | Draw 31% | Austria Vienna 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG SCR Altach 1.21 / Austria Vienna 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.855 / def 0.900 | Austria Vienna attack 0.749 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.610 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Austria Vienna xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna kick off?
SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
SCR Altach 2 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna part of?
SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 38% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both SCR Altach and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Vienna?
Record (2 meetings): SCR Altach 1W | Draws 0 | Austria Vienna 1W.
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Austria Vienna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SCR Altach's attack rating (0.85) and Austria Vienna's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
38%
2.66
31%
3.23
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.30
1.09
Austria Vienna xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
9%
10.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.09 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach come into this having played 39 games, going 8W 12D 19L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.31 PPG from 39 outings (13W 12D 14L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Austria Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SCR Altach on 0.92 PPG, Austria Vienna on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SCR Altach's home form reads 4W 5D 10L across 19 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.16 points per game from 19 outings (5W 7D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.67 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna in 64%.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Early Season
Austria Vienna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 8W 12D 19L in their last 39 games (0.92 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 13W 12D 14L in their last 39 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.89 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Austria Vienna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SCR Altach
3
Draws
4
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 3, Austria Vienna have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when SCR Altach 2-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 53%, Austria Vienna 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (SCR Altach) and 63% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of SCR Altach's games and 68% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of SCR Altach's recent games and 63% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SCR Altach edge out Austria Vienna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat Austria Vienna 2-1 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.21 xG and Austria Vienna 1.09 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.85 / defence 0.90 against Austria Vienna attack 0.75 / defence 1.11, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 38% | Draw 31% | Austria Vienna 31%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 49%, Austria Vienna 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.92 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.