Red Bull Salzburg 1-1 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Red Bull Salzburg (77%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Red Bull Salzburg face SCR Altach.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 22 as Red Bull Salzburg welcome SCR Altach to Red Bull Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 March 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg at Red Bull Arena this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Red Bull Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SCR Altach — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SCR Altach have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Red Bull Salzburg are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 2.00 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Red Bull Salzburg, 0 for SCR Altach and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 3–2 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Red Bull Salzburg in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
SCR Altach in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 47% versus SCR Altach 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 57% | SCR Altach 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 2.44 xG and SCR Altach 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.245 / defence 0.654 | SCR Altach attack 0.720 / defence 1.426. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.371. SCR Altach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.426 — this is suppressing Red Bull Salzburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Red Bull Salzburg's defence rating of 0.654 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Red Bull Salzburg games / 43 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 77% | Draw 15% | SCR Altach 8%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 1.30 | Draw 6.67 | SCR Altach 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Red Bull Salzburg (77%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Red Bull Salzburg at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Red Bull Salzburg 30% | SCR Altach 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 77% | Draw 15% | SCR Altach 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 43% | xG Red Bull Salzburg 2.44 / SCR Altach 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.245 / def 0.654 | SCR Altach attack 0.720 / def 1.426 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
0.65
SCR Altach xG
43%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach?
Red Bull Salzburg 1 - 1 SCR Altach.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 77% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 8% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach?
Record (3 meetings): Red Bull Salzburg 2W | Draws 1 | SCR Altach 0W.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach in?
Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Red Bull Salzburg's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against SCR Altach's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.44. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Red Bull Salzburg's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.6%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
77%
1.30
15%
6.58
8%
12.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
3 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
3.08
0.65
SCR Altach xG
1.30
77%
Home win
6.58
15%
Draw
12.64
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
9%
11.42
Win to Nil
40%
2.48
1%
144.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 8.8 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 0.65 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Red Bull Salzburg come into this having played 53 games, going 42W 8D 3L for 2.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SCR Altach sit at 0.85 PPG from 53 outings (11W 12D 30L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Red Bull Salzburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.68 PPG clear of SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Red Bull Salzburg's home form reads 21W 5D 0L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.62 PPG return.
Away from home, SCR Altach have taken 0.92 points per game from 26 outings (7W 3D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.36 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.85 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 42W 8D 3L in their last 53 games (2.53 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 11W 12D 30L in their last 53 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or SCR Altach away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.62 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or SCR Altach been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, SCR Altach in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2022, when Red Bull Salzburg won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Red Bull Salzburg's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Red Bull Salzburg
5
Draws
0
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Red Bull Salzburg have won 5, SCR Altach have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when SCR Altach 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Red Bull Salzburg see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 38%, SCR Altach 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Red Bull Salzburg and 73% for SCR Altach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; SCR Altach in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Red Bull Salzburg play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 38% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Red Bull Salzburg's matches and 73% of SCR Altach's.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Red Bull Salzburg have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach finished level at 1-1 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 2.44 xG and SCR Altach 0.65 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.25 / defence 0.65 against SCR Altach attack 0.72 / defence 1.43, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 77% | Draw 15% | SCR Altach 8%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 77%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 57%, SCR Altach 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
SCR Altach's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.46 scoring average — below par going forward. SCR Altach (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.