Red Bull Salzburg 3-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Red Bull Salzburg (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Red Bull Salzburg face SCR Altach.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 12 as Red Bull Salzburg welcome SCR Altach to Red Bull Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 October 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg at Red Bull Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
SCR Altach — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SCR Altach have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Red Bull Salzburg are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Red Bull Salzburg have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 past contests while SCR Altach have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2023, ended 2–0 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Red Bull Salzburg and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Red Bull Salzburg in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
SCR Altach in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 46% versus SCR Altach 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 51% | SCR Altach 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.08 xG and SCR Altach 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.950 / defence 0.711 | SCR Altach attack 0.732 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.168 / away 1.395. Red Bull Salzburg's defence rating of 0.711 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Red Bull Salzburg games / 33 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 40% | Draw 39% | SCR Altach 21%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 2.50 | Draw 2.56 | SCR Altach 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 39% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Red Bull Salzburg at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 39% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Red Bull Salzburg 40% | SCR Altach 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 40% | Draw 39% | SCR Altach 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.08 / SCR Altach 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.950 / def 0.711 | SCR Altach attack 0.732 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.168 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
0.73
SCR Altach xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach?
Red Bull Salzburg 3 - 0 SCR Altach.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 40% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 21% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach?
Record (5 meetings): Red Bull Salzburg 3W | Draws 2 | SCR Altach 0W.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach in?
Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Red Bull Salzburg's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against SCR Altach's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Red Bull Salzburg's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
40%
2.49
39%
2.57
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
1.80
0.73
SCR Altach xG
2.49
40%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
7%
14.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 11.9 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 12.9 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 0.73 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Red Bull Salzburg come into this having played 43 games, going 30W 10D 3L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SCR Altach sit at 0.95 PPG from 43 outings (9W 14D 20L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Red Bull Salzburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.38 PPG clear of SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Red Bull Salzburg's home form reads 13W 6D 2L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return.
Away from home, SCR Altach have taken 0.95 points per game from 21 outings (4W 8D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.88 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 30W 10D 3L in their last 43 games (2.33 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 9W 14D 20L in their last 43 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or SCR Altach away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.14 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or SCR Altach been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, SCR Altach in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2022, when Red Bull Salzburg won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Red Bull Salzburg's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Red Bull Salzburg
5
Draws
0
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Red Bull Salzburg have won 5, SCR Altach have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when SCR Altach 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and SCR Altach?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Red Bull Salzburg see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
SCR Altach see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 38%, SCR Altach 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 52% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; SCR Altach in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Red Bull Salzburg play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 43% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Red Bull Salzburg vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent games and 52% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Red Bull Salzburg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat SCR Altach 3-0 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.08 xG and SCR Altach 0.73 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.95 / defence 0.71 against SCR Altach attack 0.73 / defence 0.97, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 40% | Draw 39% | SCR Altach 21%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 51%, SCR Altach 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
SCR Altach's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.