Red Bull Salzburg 0-0 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Championship Round - 3 sees Lask Linz travel to Red Bull Arena to take on Red Bull Salzburg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 April 2023, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Red Bull Salzburg stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at Red Bull Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Red Bull Arena. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Red Bull Arena this season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Lask Linz have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Lask Linz have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Red Bull Salzburg are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Red Bull Salzburg in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Lask Linz in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 48% versus Lask Linz 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 57% | Lask Linz 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.50 xG and Lask Linz 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.115 / defence 0.734 | Lask Linz attack 1.107 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.335. Red Bull Salzburg's defence rating of 0.734 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Red Bull Salzburg games / 44 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 47% | Draw 26% | Lask Linz 28%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Lask Linz 3.57. Red Bull Salzburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Red Bull Salzburg are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Red Bull Salzburg 40% | Lask Linz 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 47% | Draw 26% | Lask Linz 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.50 / Lask Linz 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.115 / def 0.734 | Lask Linz attack 1.107 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Lask Linz xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz?
Red Bull Salzburg 0 - 0 Lask Linz.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 47% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz in?
Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Lask Linz (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Red Bull Salzburg's attack at 1.11x the league average against Lask Linz's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Red Bull Salzburg's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
47%
2.14
26%
3.87
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.58
1.08
Lask Linz xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
6%
16.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.08 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Red Bull Salzburg have picked up 2.48 PPG on a 43W 10D 3L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lask Linz's form line: 19W 21D 16L from 56 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Red Bull Salzburg are the form team by 1.09 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lask Linz.
Venue Form
On home soil, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 2.50 PPG from 28 outings (21W 7D 0L).
On the road, Lask Linz have gone 7W 13D 8L from 28 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.36 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.54 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz in 64%.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 43W 10D 3L in their last 56 games (2.48 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 19W 21D 16L in their last 56 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or Lask Linz away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.50 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lask Linz have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Red Bull Salzburg's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Red Bull Salzburg
0
Draws
5
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, Red Bull Salzburg have won 5, Lask Linz have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Lask Linz 2-1 Red Bull Salzburg.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Red Bull Salzburg see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 43%, Lask Linz 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 46% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Red Bull Salzburg play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Red Bull Salzburg's games and 68% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent games and 46% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Red Bull Salzburg have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Red Bull Salzburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz finished level at 0-0 at Red Bull Arena, Championship Round - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.50 xG and Lask Linz 1.08 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Lask Linz landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.11 / defence 0.73 against Lask Linz attack 1.11 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 47% | Draw 26% | Lask Linz 28%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 57%, Lask Linz 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lask Linz's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.