Rapid Vienna 3-0 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rapid Vienna (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rapid Vienna face WSG Wattens.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees WSG Wattens travel to Allianz Stadion to take on Rapid Vienna. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 September 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Rapid Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rapid Vienna's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Allianz Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
WSG Wattens — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. WSG Wattens have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Rapid Vienna are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Rapid Vienna's 20% rate and WSG Wattens's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Rapid Vienna: 6 wins from 9 previous clashes against 0 for WSG Wattens, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Rapid Vienna a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Rapid Vienna trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
WSG Wattens trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 53% versus WSG Wattens 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 47% | WSG Wattens 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 2.16 xG and WSG Wattens 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.551 / defence 0.795 | WSG Wattens attack 1.177 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.231. Rapid Vienna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.551 — their λ of 2.16 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Rapid Vienna's defence rating of 0.795 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 28 Rapid Vienna games / 28 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 59% | Draw 23% | WSG Wattens 18%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | WSG Wattens 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Rapid Vienna (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.16 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 62% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rapid Vienna at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Rapid Vienna 20% | WSG Wattens 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Sep 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 59% | Draw 23% | WSG Wattens 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Rapid Vienna 2.16 / WSG Wattens 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.551 / def 0.795 | WSG Wattens attack 1.177 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.15
WSG Wattens xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 18 September 2026 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Rapid Vienna 3 - 0 WSG Wattens.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens part of?
Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 59% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens?
Record (9 meetings): Rapid Vienna 6W | Draws 3 | WSG Wattens 0W.
What form are Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rapid Vienna's attacking strength (1.55x league average) is weighed against WSG Wattens's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.16. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Rapid Vienna's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.37
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
3.31
1.15
WSG Wattens xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
11%
8.70
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
2%
48.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.15 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rapid Vienna's recent record stands at 16W 8D 14L from 38 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
WSG Wattens, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 14L across 38 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for WSG Wattens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rapid Vienna on 1.47 PPG, WSG Wattens on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rapid Vienna have managed 10W 2D 7L from 19 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
WSG Wattens's away record stands at 5W 5D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rapid Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.29 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
WSG Wattens
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 16W 8D 14L in their last 38 games (1.47 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 12W 12D 14L in their last 38 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or WSG Wattens away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.68 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Rapid Vienna won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rapid Vienna's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Rapid Vienna
3
Draws
0
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 7, WSG Wattens have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Rapid Vienna 3-0 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 42%, WSG Wattens 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Rapid Vienna) and 53% (WSG Wattens).
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Rapid Vienna have failed to score in 26% of games; WSG Wattens in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play WSG Wattens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 47% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Rapid Vienna's recent games and 53% of WSG Wattens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rapid Vienna and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rapid Vienna run riot with a 3-0 hammering of WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat WSG Wattens 3-0 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 2.16 xG and WSG Wattens 1.15 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rapid Vienna beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. WSG Wattens landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.55 / defence 0.80 against WSG Wattens attack 1.18 / defence 0.86, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 59% | Draw 23% | WSG Wattens 18%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 47%, WSG Wattens 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.47 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.