Rapid Vienna 0-2 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rapid Vienna at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rapid Vienna host TSV Hartberg at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga, Championship Group - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Rapid Vienna have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Allianz Stadion, Rapid Vienna have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 2W 7D 1L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On current form, Rapid Vienna have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Rapid Vienna have won 3, TSV Hartberg 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Rapid Vienna trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 58% versus TSV Hartberg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 48% | TSV Hartberg 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.15 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 0.985 / defence 0.885 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.971 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 Rapid Vienna games / 44 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 39% | Draw 31% | TSV Hartberg 30%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | TSV Hartberg 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rapid Vienna as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Rapid Vienna 60% | TSV Hartberg 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 28 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 39% | Draw 31% | TSV Hartberg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.15 / TSV Hartberg 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 0.985 / def 0.885 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.971 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.99
TSV Hartberg xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Rapid Vienna 0 - 2 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg is a Championship Group - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 39% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Record (9 meetings): Rapid Vienna 3W | Draws 2 | TSV Hartberg 4W.
What form are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 0.98x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Rapid Vienna's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
39%
2.59
31%
3.22
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.14
0.99
TSV Hartberg xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
10%
10.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.6 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 0.99 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 16D 21L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.33 PPG from 60 outings (19W 23D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rapid Vienna on 1.42 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 16W 4D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.38 points per game from 29 outings (9W 13D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rapid Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.20 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 23W 16D 21L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 19W 23D 18L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.79 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Rapid Vienna or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Rapid Vienna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rapid Vienna's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
5
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 3, TSV Hartberg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Rapid Vienna 0-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
TSV Hartberg see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 45%, TSV Hartberg 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Rapid Vienna) and 45% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 41%; TSV Hartberg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 45% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Rapid Vienna's recent games and 45% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rapid Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Rapid Vienna 0-2 at Allianz Stadion, Championship Group - 28, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.15 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.99 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rapid Vienna fell 1.2 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 0.98 / defence 0.89 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.97 / defence 0.87, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 39% | Draw 31% | TSV Hartberg 30%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 48%, TSV Hartberg 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.42 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.