Lask Linz 3-3 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg meet at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 May 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Raiffeisen Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Lask Linz, 0.90 for TSV Hartberg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Lask Linz — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 48% versus TSV Hartberg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 45% | TSV Hartberg 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.28 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.870 / defence 1.065 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.738 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.239. TSV Hartberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Lask Linz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Lask Linz games / 22 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 43% | Draw 28% | TSV Hartberg 28%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | TSV Hartberg 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 30% | TSV Hartberg 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 8 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 43% | Draw 28% | TSV Hartberg 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Lask Linz 1.28 / TSV Hartberg 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.870 / def 1.065 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.738 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
0.97
TSV Hartberg xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Lask Linz 3 - 3 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg is a Relegation Round - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 43% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 0.87x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.74x) against Lask Linz's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
43%
2.30
28%
3.54
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.25
0.97
TSV Hartberg xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
16%
6.09
8%
12.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.2 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Lask Linz and 0.97 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lask Linz come into this having played 29 games, going 8W 10D 11L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.07 PPG from 29 outings (7W 10D 12L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Lask Linz against 1.07 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lask Linz's home form reads 5W 4D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.21 points per game from 14 outings (4W 5D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lask Linz are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.28 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Current Season
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 8W 10D 11L in their last 29 games (1.17 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 7W 10D 12L in their last 29 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.36 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 1-5 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lask Linz
5
Draws
0
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 5, TSV Hartberg have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-5 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lask Linz see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 43%, TSV Hartberg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Lask Linz) and 43% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz have failed to score in 36% of games; TSV Hartberg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 50% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Lask Linz's recent games and 43% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Raiffeisen Arena, Relegation Round - 8, as Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg drew 3-3 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.28 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.97 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Lask Linz beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. TSV Hartberg outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.74 / defence 1.28, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 43% | Draw 28% | TSV Hartberg 28%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 45%, TSV Hartberg 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.17 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.