Lask Linz 1-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 53%, yet in-form Lask Linz provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lask Linz host Rapid Vienna at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 July 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lask Linz — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 3.00 points per game. Last five: W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Lask Linz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 Bundesliga matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Rapid Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lask Linz are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 3.00 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Lask Linz's 0% and Rapid Vienna's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 0.68 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.987 / defence 1.150 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.600 / away 1.520. Data: 1 Lask Linz games / 1 Rapid Vienna games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 14% | Draw 33% | Rapid Vienna 53%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 7.14 | Draw 3.03 | Rapid Vienna 1.89. Rapid Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rapid Vienna as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lask Linz (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 14% | Draw 33% | Rapid Vienna 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Lask Linz 0.68 / Rapid Vienna 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.987 / def 1.150 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.600 / away 1.520 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Rapid Vienna xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Lask Linz 1 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 14% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 53% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lask Linz's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Rapid Vienna's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.68. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
14%
7.36
33%
3.00
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.6%
Away win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.17
1.49
Rapid Vienna xG
7.36
14%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
51%
1.98
Win to Nil
3%
32.54
27%
3.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 17.0 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.49 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lask Linz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rapid Vienna's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Lask Linz are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rapid Vienna.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Rapid Vienna in 0%.
Defensively: Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Early Season
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Lask Linz or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2024, when Lask Linz won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Lask Linz
2
Draws
2
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 6, Rapid Vienna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Lask Linz 3-1 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Rapid Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 0% of Rapid Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Lask Linz's recent games and 0% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 2, as Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 0.68 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.49 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.99 / defence 1.15 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 14% | Draw 33% | Rapid Vienna 53%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 0%, Rapid Vienna 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lask Linz shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rapid Vienna scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.