Grazer AK 2-1 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grazer AK at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Grazer AK and FC BW Linz meet at Merkur-Arena in Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Grazer AK's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grazer AK's home record at Merkur-Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC BW Linz (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FC BW Linz have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Grazer AK. A 0.60 PPG lead over FC BW Linz (1.40 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Grazer AK, 1 for FC BW Linz and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with Grazer AK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Grazer AK half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
FC BW Linz half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 62% versus FC BW Linz 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 55% | FC BW Linz 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.46 xG and FC BW Linz 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 1.050 / defence 1.044 | FC BW Linz attack 0.774 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 Grazer AK games / 44 FC BW Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 49% | Draw 28% | FC BW Linz 23%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | FC BW Linz 4.35. Grazer AK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Grazer AK as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grazer AK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Grazer AK 70% | FC BW Linz 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 25 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 49% | Draw 28% | FC BW Linz 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Grazer AK 1.46 / FC BW Linz 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 1.050 / def 1.044 | FC BW Linz attack 0.774 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Grazer AK (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
0.93
FC BW Linz xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz kick off?
Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz?
Grazer AK 2 - 1 FC BW Linz.
Where is Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz part of?
Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz is a Relegation Group - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 49% chance of winning, FC BW Linz a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Grazer AK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Grazer AK and FC BW Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and FC BW Linz?
Record (4 meetings): Grazer AK 2W | Draws 1 | FC BW Linz 1W.
What form are Grazer AK and FC BW Linz in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. FC BW Linz (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Grazer AK's attack at 1.05x the league average against FC BW Linz's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC BW Linz's attack (0.77x) against Grazer AK's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grazer AK Win
49%
2.05
28%
3.57
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.38
0.93
FC BW Linz xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
5%
18.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and FC BW Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Grazer AK and 0.93 for FC BW Linz, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Grazer AK come into this having played 56 games, going 11W 21D 24L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Grazer AK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC BW Linz sit at 1.00 PPG from 56 outings (16W 8D 32L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC BW Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Grazer AK against 1.00 for FC BW Linz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Grazer AK's home form reads 7W 11D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, FC BW Linz have taken 0.68 points per game from 28 outings (4W 7D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grazer AK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Grazer AK are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; FC BW Linz are on 1.09 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Blended
FC BW Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and FC BW Linz in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 11W 21D 24L in their last 56 games (0.96 PPG), while FC BW Linz have gone 16W 8D 32L in their last 56 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or FC BW Linz away?
Grazer AK's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 1.14 PPG; FC BW Linz away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Grazer AK have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won 3-0 on 13 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grazer AK have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC BW Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Grazer AK
1
Draws
1
FC BW Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and FC BW Linz?
From 6 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 4, FC BW Linz have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and FC BW Linz last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when FC BW Linz 0-3 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and FC BW Linz?
Grazer AK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grazer AK 64%, FC BW Linz 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Grazer AK) and 50% (FC BW Linz).
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / FC BW Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play FC BW Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Grazer AK's games and 54% of FC BW Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grazer AK vs FC BW Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Grazer AK's recent games and 50% of FC BW Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grazer AK and FC BW Linz tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC BW Linz in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Grazer AK edge out FC BW Linz 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grazer AK beat FC BW Linz 2-1 at Merkur-Arena, Relegation Group - 25, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.46 xG and FC BW Linz 0.93 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 1.05 / defence 1.04 against FC BW Linz attack 0.77 / defence 1.03, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 49% | Draw 28% | FC BW Linz 23%, with Grazer AK to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 55%, FC BW Linz 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grazer AK's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
FC BW Linz's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grazer AK 0.96 PPG, FC BW Linz 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grazer AK win broke the near-deadlock. Grazer AK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.