Austria Vienna 0-1 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Generali Arena plays host to Austria Vienna versus Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 13 November 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Austria Vienna have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Generali Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Wolfsberger AC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Wolfsberger AC have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Austria Vienna, 1.20 for Wolfsberger AC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Austria Vienna register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Wolfsberger AC in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Vienna 66% and Wolfsberger AC 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Austria Vienna 55% | Wolfsberger AC 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.89 xG and Wolfsberger AC 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.041 / defence 1.041 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.202 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.613. Wolfsberger AC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Austria Vienna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Wolfsberger AC have an above-average attack strength of 1.202 — the away xG of 2.02 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Austria Vienna games / 37 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 36% | Draw 23% | Wolfsberger AC 41%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | Wolfsberger AC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 2.02) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolfsberger AC at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 80% | Wolfsberger AC 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 36% | Draw 23% | Wolfsberger AC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 74% | xG Austria Vienna 1.89 / Wolfsberger AC 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.041 / def 1.041 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.202 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.613 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Wolfsberger AC xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Austria Vienna 0 - 1 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 36% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (1.20x) against Austria Vienna's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 2.02.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.7%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
36%
2.77
23%
4.42
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
3.90
2.02
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.77
36%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.34
26%
BTTS No
3.91
Clean Sheet
13%
7.52
15%
6.60
Win to Nil
5%
20.82
6%
16.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 2.02 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 3.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 17W 18D 12L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 18W 7D 22L from 47 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.30 for Wolfsberger AC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 1.57 PPG from 23 outings (9W 9D 5L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 9W 4D 10L from 23 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.62 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Wolfsberger AC in 72%.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 17W 18D 12L in their last 47 games (1.47 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 18W 7D 22L in their last 47 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.57 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Wolfsberger AC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 0-4 on 11 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 5, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 3-0 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for Austria Vienna, 70% for Wolfsberger AC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Austria Vienna and 78% for Wolfsberger AC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Austria Vienna's games and 70% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Austria Vienna's matches and 78% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wolfsberger AC edge out Austria Vienna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Austria Vienna 0-1 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.89 xG and Wolfsberger AC 2.02 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Austria Vienna fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Wolfsberger AC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.04 / defence 1.04 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.20 / defence 1.24, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 36% | Draw 23% | Wolfsberger AC 41%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 55%, Wolfsberger AC 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.47 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.