Austria Vienna 0-4 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Generali Arena plays host to Austria Vienna versus Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga (Relegation Round - 9). Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Austria Vienna have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Austria Vienna's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Wolfsberger AC's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Wolfsberger AC have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Austria Vienna's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Austria Vienna edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 13 Apr 2024, ended Austria Vienna 1–0 Wolfsberger AC — a Austria Vienna win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 54% versus Wolfsberger AC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 59% | Wolfsberger AC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.62 xG and Wolfsberger AC 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.085 / defence 0.846 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.939 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Data: built from Austria Vienna's last 44 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 44.
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 56% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 17%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 1.80 | Draw 3.69 | Wolfsberger AC 5.80. The model has a clear lean to Austria Vienna (56%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Vienna at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Austria Vienna's last 10 home games and Wolfsberger AC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Austria Vienna 40% (last 10 home games) | Wolfsberger AC 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 9 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 56% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Austria Vienna 1.62 / Wolfsberger AC 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.085 / def 0.846 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.939 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Wolfsberger AC xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC FAQs
What time does Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Austria Vienna 0 - 4 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC is a Bundesliga fixture (Relegation Round - 9) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 56% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (0.94x) against Austria Vienna's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from Austria Vienna's last 44 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
56%
1.80
27%
3.69
17%
5.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.43
0.80
Wolfsberger AC xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
5.80
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
3%
29.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.5 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 0.80 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 23W 21D 19L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 22W 16D 25L from 63 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.30 for Wolfsberger AC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 1.71 PPG from their last 31 home games (14W 11D 6L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 14W 8D 9L from their last 31 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.37 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Current Season
Wolfsberger AC
Current Season
Austria Vienna (Home) vs Wolfsberger AC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Austria Vienna
Current Season
Wolfsberger AC
Current Season
❓ Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC Form FAQs
What form are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 23W 21D 19L in their last 63 games (1.43 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 22W 16D 25L in their last 63 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.71 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or Wolfsberger AC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Wolfsberger AC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 2 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Wolfsberger AC have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won Austria Vienna 0-4 Wolfsberger AC on 11 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Austria Vienna have won 5, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2026: Wolfsberger AC 3-0 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 48%, Wolfsberger AC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Austria Vienna and 58% for Wolfsberger AC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Wolfsberger AC in 32%; Austria Vienna have failed to score in 26% of games; Wolfsberger AC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 52% of Wolfsberger AC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Austria Vienna's matches and 58% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 74% of Wolfsberger AC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wolfsberger AC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Austria Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Austria Vienna 0-4 at Generali Arena, Relegation Round - 9, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.62 xG and Wolfsberger AC 0.80 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Austria Vienna fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Wolfsberger AC outscored their 0.80 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.08 / defence 0.85 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.94 / defence 1.12, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 56% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 17%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Wolfsberger AC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 59%, Wolfsberger AC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.43 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.