Austria Vienna 0-0 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Generali Arena plays host to Austria Vienna versus Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga (matchday 4). Kick-off: Sunday 20 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Austria Vienna have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Austria Vienna's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Austria Vienna are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Wolfsberger AC's record over their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Wolfsberger AC have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
On a straight form reading, Wolfsberger AC are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (last 36 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (last 36 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Vienna 67% and Wolfsberger AC 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Austria Vienna 72% | Wolfsberger AC 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.34 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 0.954 / defence 1.158 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.107 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.203. Data: built from Austria Vienna's last 25 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 25. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 31% | Draw 28% | Wolfsberger AC 40%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 3.18 | Draw 3.56 | Wolfsberger AC 2.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.34 / 1.54) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolfsberger AC at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Austria Vienna's last 10 home games and Wolfsberger AC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Austria Vienna 60% (last 10 home games) | Wolfsberger AC 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Austria Vienna 25 games, Wolfsberger AC 25) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 4 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 31% | Draw 28% | Wolfsberger AC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Austria Vienna 1.34 / Wolfsberger AC 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 0.954 / def 1.158 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.107 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Wolfsberger AC xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC FAQs
What time does Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Austria Vienna 0 - 0 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 4) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 31% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (1.11x) against Austria Vienna's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from Austria Vienna's last 25 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 25, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
31%
3.18
28%
3.56
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.88
1.54
Wolfsberger AC xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
7%
14.84
11%
9.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.54 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 13W 11D 12L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 13W 8D 15L from 36 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.31 for Wolfsberger AC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 1.59 PPG from their last 17 home games (8W 3D 6L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 9W 3D 5L from their last 17 away games — 1.76 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.31 PPG overall record — Wolfsberger AC travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.58 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Wolfsberger AC in 72%.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Early Season
Wolfsberger AC
Early Season
Austria Vienna (Home) vs Wolfsberger AC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Austria Vienna
Early Season
Wolfsberger AC
Early Season
❓ Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC Form FAQs
What form are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 13W 11D 12L in their last 36 games (1.39 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 13W 8D 15L in their last 36 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.59 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 2 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Wolfsberger AC have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won Austria Vienna 0-4 Wolfsberger AC on 11 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Austria Vienna have won 5, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2026: Wolfsberger AC 3-0 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 59%, Wolfsberger AC 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Austria Vienna and 76% for Wolfsberger AC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Austria Vienna's games and 65% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Austria Vienna's matches and 76% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 88% of Wolfsberger AC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Austria Vienna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC finished level at 0-0 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.34 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.54 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Austria Vienna fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Wolfsberger AC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 0.95 / defence 1.16 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.11 / defence 1.08, drawn from 25/25 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 31% | Draw 28% | Wolfsberger AC 40%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 72%, Wolfsberger AC 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.39 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.