Austria Vienna 2-5 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz meet at Generali Arena in Bundesliga, Championship Group - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Austria Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Generali Arena, Austria Vienna have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Sturm Graz (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across 8 previous meetings, Austria Vienna are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 3–1 with Austria Vienna winning.
The historical record gives Austria Vienna a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Austria Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 56% versus Sturm Graz 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 57% | Sturm Graz 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.48 xG and Sturm Graz 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.086 / defence 1.009 | Sturm Graz attack 1.136 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 Austria Vienna games / 44 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 40% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 33%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Sturm Graz 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Austria Vienna 50% | Sturm Graz 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 23 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 40% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Austria Vienna 1.48 / Sturm Graz 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.086 / def 1.009 | Sturm Graz attack 1.136 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Sturm Graz xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Austria Vienna 2 - 5 Sturm Graz.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz part of?
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz is a Championship Group - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 40% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz?
Record (8 meetings): Austria Vienna 5W | Draws 2 | Sturm Graz 1W.
What form are Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Sturm Graz's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.14x) against Austria Vienna's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
40%
2.48
27%
3.75
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.79
1.32
Sturm Graz xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
8%
13.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.32 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Austria Vienna come into this having played 54 games, going 29W 9D 16L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sturm Graz sit at 1.87 PPG from 54 outings (31W 8D 15L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.87 for Sturm Graz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Austria Vienna's home form reads 15W 5D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Sturm Graz have taken 1.81 points per game from 27 outings (15W 4D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.83 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 29W 9D 16L in their last 54 games (1.78 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 31W 8D 15L in their last 54 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Sturm Graz away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.85 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 0-3 on 30 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Austria Vienna
3
Draws
2
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 5, Sturm Graz have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 56%, Sturm Graz 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Austria Vienna and 63% for Sturm Graz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Austria Vienna's games and 59% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Austria Vienna's matches and 63% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sturm Graz run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Austria Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Austria Vienna 2-5 at Generali Arena, Championship Group - 23, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.48 xG and Sturm Graz 1.32 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.32 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.09 / defence 1.01 against Sturm Graz attack 1.14 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 40% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 33%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sturm Graz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 57%, Sturm Graz 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.78 PPG, Sturm Graz 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sturm Graz win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.