Austria Vienna 1-3 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Red Bull Salzburg at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg meet at Generali Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Austria Vienna (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Austria Vienna have posted 4W 4D 2L at Generali Arena — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Red Bull Salzburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record: 8W 0D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Red Bull Salzburg — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 65% versus Red Bull Salzburg 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 54% | Red Bull Salzburg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.24 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 2.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.074 / defence 0.961 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.385 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.755. Red Bull Salzburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.385 — the away xG of 2.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Austria Vienna games / 33 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 19% | Draw 20% | Red Bull Salzburg 61%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 5.26 | Draw 5.00 | Red Bull Salzburg 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Red Bull Salzburg (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 2.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.58 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 80% | Red Bull Salzburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 19% | Draw 20% | Red Bull Salzburg 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 65% | xG Austria Vienna 1.24 / Red Bull Salzburg 2.34 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.074 / def 0.961 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.385 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.755 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
2.34
Red Bull Salzburg xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Austria Vienna 1 - 3 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 19% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 61% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Red Bull Salzburg's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Red Bull Salzburg's attack (1.39x) against Austria Vienna's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 2.34.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
19%
5.40
20%
4.96
61%
1.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
3.58
2.34
Red Bull Salzburg xG
5.40
19%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
1.63
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
10%
10.34
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
2%
55.83
18%
5.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 2.34 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 16W 16D 11L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Red Bull Salzburg's form line: 33W 7D 3L from 43 games, 2.47 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Red Bull Salzburg are the form team by 0.98 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Austria Vienna.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 1.57 PPG from 21 outings (8W 9D 4L).
On the road, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 15W 3D 3L from 21 away games — 2.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.40 scored and 0.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 16W 16D 11L in their last 43 games (1.49 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 33W 7D 3L in their last 43 (2.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.57 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Red Bull Salzburg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Red Bull Salzburg won 0-3 on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Red Bull Salzburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
8
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 3-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 71%, Red Bull Salzburg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Austria Vienna) and 62% (Red Bull Salzburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Red Bull Salzburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Austria Vienna's games and 52% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Austria Vienna's matches and 62% of Red Bull Salzburg's.
Do Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Red Bull Salzburg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Austria Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat Austria Vienna 1-3 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.24 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 2.34 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.07 / defence 0.96 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.39 / defence 0.82, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 19% | Draw 20% | Red Bull Salzburg 61%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 54%, Red Bull Salzburg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.49. That form edge translated into the three points. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.