Austria Lustenau 2-1 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Lustenau at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees WSG Wattens travel to Planet Pure Stadion to take on Austria Lustenau. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 July 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
WSG Wattens — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. WSG Wattens haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.50 xG and WSG Wattens 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | WSG Wattens attack 1.017 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.076. Data: 0 Austria Lustenau games / 22 WSG Wattens games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 41% | Draw 30% | WSG Wattens 30%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | WSG Wattens 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Lustenau are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Lustenau offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jul 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 41% | Draw 30% | WSG Wattens 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Austria Lustenau 1.50 / WSG Wattens 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | WSG Wattens attack 1.017 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Austria Lustenau (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
1.26
WSG Wattens xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 July 2022 at Planet Pure Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens?
Austria Lustenau 2 - 1 WSG Wattens.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens part of?
Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 41% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Austria Lustenau the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. WSG Wattens (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Austria Lustenau's attack at 0.85x the league average against WSG Wattens's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Austria Lustenau's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Lustenau Win
41%
2.46
30%
3.37
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
2.76
1.26
WSG Wattens xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
12%
8.65
7%
15.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.26 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Pre-Season
WSG Wattens
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Austria Lustenau's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Austria Lustenau
1
Draws
4
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens?
From 8 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 3, WSG Wattens have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when WSG Wattens 0-0 Austria Lustenau.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and WSG Wattens?
WSG Wattens have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Lustenau edge out WSG Wattens 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Lustenau beat WSG Wattens 2-1 at Planet Pure Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 1.50 xG and WSG Wattens 1.26 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against WSG Wattens attack 1.02 / defence 1.03, drawn from 0/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 41% | Draw 30% | WSG Wattens 30%, with Austria Lustenau to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.