Austria Lustenau 1-3 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 42%, yet in-form Austria Lustenau provide a compelling counter-argument — this Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Planet Pure Stadion plays host to Austria Lustenau versus Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 15 April 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Austria Lustenau (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Lustenau's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Planet Pure Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Wolfsberger AC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Austria Lustenau. A 0.90 PPG lead over Wolfsberger AC (1.90 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Austria Lustenau 1W, Wolfsberger AC 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 1–0 with Austria Lustenau winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Austria Lustenau goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Wolfsberger AC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Lustenau 50% and Wolfsberger AC 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 50% | Wolfsberger AC 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.31 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 1.052 / defence 1.117 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.023 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.335. Data: 22 Austria Lustenau games / 44 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 33% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 42%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Wolfsberger AC 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolfsberger AC at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Austria Lustenau (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Austria Lustenau 40% | Wolfsberger AC 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 33% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Austria Lustenau 1.31 / Wolfsberger AC 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 1.052 / def 1.117 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.023 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Wolfsberger AC xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Planet Pure Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC?
Austria Lustenau 1 - 3 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 33% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (2 meetings): Austria Lustenau 1W | Draws 0 | Wolfsberger AC 1W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Austria Lustenau's attack at 1.05x the league average against Wolfsberger AC's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (1.02x) against Austria Lustenau's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 22/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
33%
3.05
25%
4.01
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
2.84
1.52
Wolfsberger AC xG
3.05
33%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
7%
14.01
11%
8.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.52 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 24 outings, Austria Lustenau have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 9W 6D 9L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 7W 3D 14L from 24 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Austria Lustenau against 1.00 for Wolfsberger AC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Austria Lustenau have posted 1.75 PPG from 12 outings (6W 3D 3L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 5W 2D 5L from 12 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.00 PPG overall record — Wolfsberger AC travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.50 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC in 75%.
Last 24 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 9W 6D 9L in their last 24 games (1.38 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 7W 3D 14L in their last 24 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Austria Lustenau's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 1.75 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Lustenau have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Austria Lustenau
3
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC?
From 9 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 2, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2024, when Austria Lustenau 1-2 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 50%, Wolfsberger AC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Austria Lustenau and 83% for Wolfsberger AC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Lustenau keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Austria Lustenau's games and 67% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Austria Lustenau's matches and 83% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wolfsberger AC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Austria Lustenau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Austria Lustenau 1-3 at Planet Pure Stadion, Relegation Round - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 1.31 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.52 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 1.05 / defence 1.12 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.02 / defence 0.91, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 33% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 42%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 50%, Wolfsberger AC 79%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Lustenau 1.38 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.