Austria Lustenau 4-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Austria Lustenau at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Austria Lustenau host TSV Hartberg at Planet Pure Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 August 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Austria Lustenau — All Games: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.33 points per game. Last five: W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Austria Lustenau have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Austria Lustenau at 1.33 PPG versus TSV Hartberg's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Austria Lustenau in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Lustenau 67% and TSV Hartberg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 33% | TSV Hartberg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.52 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.915 / defence 1.110 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.941 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.158. Data: 3 Austria Lustenau games / 25 TSV Hartberg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 44% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 30%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | TSV Hartberg 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Lustenau are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Lustenau offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Austria Lustenau 67% | TSV Hartberg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 44% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Austria Lustenau 1.52 / TSV Hartberg 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.915 / def 1.110 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.941 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Austria Lustenau (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
1.21
TSV Hartberg xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Planet Pure Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Austria Lustenau 4 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 44% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Austria Lustenau the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Austria Lustenau's attack rating (0.92) and TSV Hartberg's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Austria Lustenau's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/25 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Lustenau Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.81
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
2.73
1.21
TSV Hartberg xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
7%
15.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.21 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Austria Lustenau come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 1D 1L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L), a run that reads W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Lustenau on 1.33 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Lustenau have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; TSV Hartberg in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Early Season
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Jun 2023, when Austria Lustenau won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Lustenau's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Austria Lustenau
2
Draws
1
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg?
From 6 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 3, TSV Hartberg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2023, when Austria Lustenau 0-4 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg?
Austria Lustenau have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Austria Lustenau at 67%, TSV Hartberg at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Austria Lustenau) and 67% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: Austria Lustenau have failed to score in 33% of games; TSV Hartberg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Austria Lustenau's games and 67% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Austria Lustenau's recent games and 67% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Austria Lustenau run riot with a 4-1 hammering of TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Lustenau beat TSV Hartberg 4-1 at Planet Pure Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 1.52 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.21 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Austria Lustenau beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 0.92 / defence 1.11 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.94 / defence 1.05, drawn from 3/25 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 44% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 30%, with Austria Lustenau to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 33%, TSV Hartberg 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Lustenau 1.33 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Lustenau win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Lustenau scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. TSV Hartberg shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.