Austria Lustenau 0-0 Ried – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Austria Lustenau at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Lustenau vs Ried fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Austria Lustenau welcome Ried to Planet Pure Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 October 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Lustenau have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Planet Pure Stadion, Austria Lustenau have gone 2W 1D 2L this season (5 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ried stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Austria Lustenau 0.90 PPG, Ried 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Austria Lustenau, 1 for Ried and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 0–1 with Ried winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Austria Lustenau in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Ried in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Lustenau 75% versus Ried 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 67% | Ried 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.39 xG and Ried 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.968 / defence 1.195 | Ried attack 0.593 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.786. Data: 12 Austria Lustenau games / 34 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 39% | Draw 27% | Ried 34%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Ried 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Lustenau are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Lustenau offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Austria Lustenau 80% | Ried 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 39% | Draw 27% | Ried 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Austria Lustenau 1.39 / Ried 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.968 / def 1.195 | Ried attack 0.593 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.786 • Poisson stance: Austria Lustenau (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Ried xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs Ried kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs Ried kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Planet Pure Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs Ried?
Austria Lustenau 0 - 0 Ried.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs Ried part of?
Austria Lustenau vs Ried is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 39% chance of winning, Ried a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Austria Lustenau the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Austria Lustenau and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Ried?
Record (1 meetings): Austria Lustenau 0W | Draws 0 | Ried 1W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and Ried in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Ried (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Austria Lustenau's attack at 0.97x the league average against Ried's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ried's attack versus Austria Lustenau's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Lustenau Win
39%
2.54
27%
3.69
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
2.66
1.27
Ried xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
11%
9.01
8%
12.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.27 for Ried, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Austria Lustenau come into this having played 12 games, going 3W 3D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ried sit at 0.92 PPG from 12 outings (3W 2D 7L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Lustenau on 1.00 PPG, Ried on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Austria Lustenau's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Ried have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Lustenau come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 0.75 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Lustenau have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and Ried in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 games (1.00 PPG), while Ried have gone 3W 2D 7L in their last 12 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or Ried away?
Austria Lustenau's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 1.40 PPG; Ried away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Austria Lustenau and Ried runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Austria Lustenau's record when hosting Ried specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Austria Lustenau
4
Draws
1
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Ried?
From 5 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 0, Ried have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Austria Lustenau 1-1 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and Ried?
Ried have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 80%, Ried 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Austria Lustenau and 40% for Ried. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ried in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Austria Lustenau's games and 40% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Lustenau vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Austria Lustenau's matches and 40% of Ried's.
Do Austria Lustenau and Ried tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ried in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Austria Lustenau's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Lustenau and Ried finished level at 0-0 at Planet Pure Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 1.39 xG and Ried 1.27 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Austria Lustenau fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Ried landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 0.97 / defence 1.20 against Ried attack 0.59 / defence 1.07, drawn from 12/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 39% | Draw 27% | Ried 34%, with Austria Lustenau to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 67%, Ried 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ried's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Lustenau 1.00 PPG, Ried 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line. Ried (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.