Austria Klagenfurt 0-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Klagenfurt at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Austria Klagenfurt host TSV Hartberg at 28 Black Arena in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 23 May 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Austria Klagenfurt — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Austria Klagenfurt's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at 28 Black Arena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
TSV Hartberg away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. TSV Hartberg are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Austria Klagenfurt hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 1 for TSV Hartberg, with 4 draws in between.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 3–2 with Austria Klagenfurt winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Austria Klagenfurt and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Austria Klagenfurt in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Klagenfurt 52% versus TSV Hartberg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Klagenfurt 56% | TSV Hartberg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.60 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.975 / defence 1.135 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.872 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.201. Data: 44 Austria Klagenfurt games / 44 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 44% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 26%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | TSV Hartberg 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Austria Klagenfurt dominate the H2H record, yet TSV Hartberg are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Austria Klagenfurt as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form TSV Hartberg (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Klagenfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Austria Klagenfurt 70% | TSV Hartberg 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 10 | Venue: 28 Black Arena • Kick-off: Friday 23 May 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 44% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.60 / TSV Hartberg 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.975 / def 1.135 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.872 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.19
TSV Hartberg xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 23 May 2025 at 28 Black Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg?
Austria Klagenfurt 0 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at 28 Black Arena.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg is a Relegation Round - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 44% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg?
Record (9 meetings): Austria Klagenfurt 4W | Draws 4 | TSV Hartberg 1W.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg in?
Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Austria Klagenfurt's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Austria Klagenfurt's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
44%
2.26
30%
3.30
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
2.79
1.19
TSV Hartberg xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
5%
19.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.19 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Klagenfurt come into this having played 63 games, going 15W 21D 27L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.33 PPG from 63 outings (22W 18D 23L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Klagenfurt on 1.05 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Austria Klagenfurt's home form reads 7W 12D 12L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.29 points per game from 31 outings (10W 10D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.33 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Current Season
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 15W 21D 27L in their last 63 games (1.05 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 22W 18D 23L in their last 63 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 1.06 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2023, when Austria Klagenfurt won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Klagenfurt's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Austria Klagenfurt
4
Draws
2
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 4, TSV Hartberg have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Austria Klagenfurt 0-1 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Klagenfurt 61%, TSV Hartberg 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Austria Klagenfurt) and 61% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 32%; Austria Klagenfurt have failed to score in 29% of games; TSV Hartberg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Klagenfurt play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Austria Klagenfurt's games and 55% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Klagenfurt vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Austria Klagenfurt's matches and 61% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Austria Klagenfurt have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as TSV Hartberg defy the odds to beat Austria Klagenfurt 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Austria Klagenfurt 0-1 at 28 Black Arena, Relegation Round - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.60 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.19 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Austria Klagenfurt fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.97 / defence 1.14 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.87 / defence 1.03, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 44% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 26%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 56%, TSV Hartberg 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Klagenfurt 1.05 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.