Admira Wacker 0-1 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Admira Wacker at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Admira Wacker host WSG Wattens at BSFZ-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Admira Wacker stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Admira Wacker, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Admira Wacker at BSFZ-Arena this season: 2W 2D 1L from 5 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, WSG Wattens have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Admira Wacker 1.20 PPG, WSG Wattens 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Admira Wacker have won 0, WSG Wattens 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Admira Wacker in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).
WSG Wattens in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Admira Wacker 64% and WSG Wattens 82% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Admira Wacker 54% | WSG Wattens 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Admira Wacker 2.31 xG and WSG Wattens 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Admira Wacker attack 1.016 / defence 0.851 | WSG Wattens attack 0.806 / defence 1.809. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.374. WSG Wattens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.809 — this is suppressing Admira Wacker's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Admira Wacker games / 11 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Admira Wacker 66% | Draw 23% | WSG Wattens 12%. Fair-value odds: Admira Wacker 1.52 | Draw 4.35 | WSG Wattens 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Admira Wacker (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Admira Wacker at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Admira Wacker 40% | WSG Wattens 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: BSFZ-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Admira Wacker 66% | Draw 23% | WSG Wattens 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 57% | xG Admira Wacker 2.31 / WSG Wattens 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Admira Wacker attack 1.016 / def 0.851 | WSG Wattens attack 0.806 / def 1.809 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Admira Wacker (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Admira Wacker xG
Expected Goals
0.94
WSG Wattens xG
57%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at BSFZ-Arena.
What was the final score in Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens?
Admira Wacker 0 - 1 WSG Wattens.
Where is Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at BSFZ-Arena.
What competition is Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens part of?
Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Admira Wacker a 66% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 12% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Admira Wacker the favourite.
Will both teams score in Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Admira Wacker and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and WSG Wattens?
Record (1 meetings): Admira Wacker 0W | Draws 1 | WSG Wattens 0W.
What form are Admira Wacker and WSG Wattens in?
Admira Wacker (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. WSG Wattens (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Admira Wacker's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against WSG Wattens's defensive record (1.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.31. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Admira Wacker's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Admira Wacker Win
66%
1.52
23%
4.43
12%
8.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Admira Wacker xG
Total xG
3.25
0.94
WSG Wattens xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
8.64
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
10%
10.09
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
1%
87.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Admira Wacker and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Admira Wacker and 0.94 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Admira Wacker's recent record stands at 3W 4D 4L from 11 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Admira Wacker is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
WSG Wattens, meanwhile, have gone 1W 6D 4L across 11 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Admira Wacker on 1.18 PPG, WSG Wattens on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Admira Wacker have managed 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Admira Wacker are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
WSG Wattens's away record stands at 0W 2D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of WSG Wattens's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Admira Wacker come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Admira Wacker are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.36 scored and 2.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Admira Wacker have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; WSG Wattens in 82%.
Last 11 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Admira Wacker
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Admira Wacker and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Admira Wacker have gone 3W 4D 4L in their last 11 games (1.18 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 1W 6D 4L in their last 11 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Admira Wacker at home or WSG Wattens away?
Admira Wacker's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Admira Wacker at home: 1.60 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Admira Wacker's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Admira Wacker
3
Draws
1
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and WSG Wattens?
From 4 meetings on record, Admira Wacker have won 0, WSG Wattens have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Admira Wacker and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2022, when Admira Wacker 1-1 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between Admira Wacker and WSG Wattens?
WSG Wattens have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Admira Wacker are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Admira Wacker 40%, WSG Wattens 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Admira Wacker) and 80% (WSG Wattens).
On the defensive side: Admira Wacker keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Admira Wacker home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Admira Wacker play WSG Wattens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Admira Wacker's games and 80% of WSG Wattens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Admira Wacker vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Admira Wacker's recent games and 80% of WSG Wattens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Admira Wacker and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Admira Wacker have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as WSG Wattens defy the odds to beat Admira Wacker 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat Admira Wacker 0-1 at BSFZ-Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Admira Wacker 2.31 xG and WSG Wattens 0.94 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Admira Wacker fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Admira Wacker attack 1.02 / defence 0.85 against WSG Wattens attack 0.81 / defence 1.81, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Admira Wacker 66% | Draw 23% | WSG Wattens 12%, with Admira Wacker to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a WSG Wattens win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Admira Wacker 54%, WSG Wattens 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Admira Wacker's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Admira Wacker 1.18 PPG, WSG Wattens 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock. Admira Wacker (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.