Admira Wacker 1-1 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Admira Wacker vs Sturm Graz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BSFZ-Arena plays host to Admira Wacker versus Sturm Graz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 29 August 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Admira Wacker's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Admira Wacker have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sturm Graz have collected 2.00 PPG across 5 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 1D 1L. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Sturm Graz are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Admira Wacker half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Sturm Graz half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 100%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Admira Wacker 40% and Sturm Graz 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Admira Wacker 60% | Sturm Graz 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Admira Wacker 1.42 xG and Sturm Graz 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Admira Wacker attack 1.065 / defence 0.988 | Sturm Graz attack 1.309 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.254. Sturm Graz have an above-average attack strength of 1.309 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 5 Admira Wacker games / 5 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Admira Wacker 30% | Draw 31% | Sturm Graz 39%. Fair-value odds: Admira Wacker 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Sturm Graz 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Admira Wacker 40% | Sturm Graz 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Admira Wacker vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: BSFZ-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Admira Wacker 30% | Draw 31% | Sturm Graz 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 64% | xG Admira Wacker 1.42 / Sturm Graz 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Admira Wacker attack 1.065 / def 0.988 | Sturm Graz attack 1.309 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Admira Wacker xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Sturm Graz xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Admira Wacker vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Admira Wacker vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at BSFZ-Arena.
What was the final score in Admira Wacker vs Sturm Graz?
Admira Wacker 1 - 1 Sturm Graz.
Where is Admira Wacker vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at BSFZ-Arena.
What competition is Admira Wacker vs Sturm Graz part of?
Admira Wacker vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Admira Wacker vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Admira Wacker a 30% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Admira Wacker vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Admira Wacker and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Admira Wacker vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and Sturm Graz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Admira Wacker and Sturm Graz in?
Admira Wacker (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Admira Wacker's attack at 1.06x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.31x) against Admira Wacker's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
30%
3.31
31%
3.27
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Admira Wacker xG
Total xG
3.04
1.62
Sturm Graz xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
6%
16.72
9%
10.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Admira Wacker vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Admira Wacker and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Admira Wacker and 1.62 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Admira Wacker vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, Admira Wacker have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 1W 1D 3L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Admira Wacker, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sturm Graz's form line: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Admira Wacker.
Attack vs Defence
Admira Wacker are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 2.60 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz in 100%.
Last 5 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Admira Wacker
Early Season
Sturm Graz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Admira Wacker and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Admira Wacker have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Admira Wacker
2
Draws
0
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and Sturm Graz?
From 2 meetings on record, Admira Wacker have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Admira Wacker and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 4 December 2021, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Admira Wacker.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Admira Wacker see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 40% for Admira Wacker, 100% for Sturm Graz — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Admira Wacker and 100% for Sturm Graz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Admira Wacker have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Admira Wacker home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Admira Wacker play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Admira Wacker's games and 100% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Admira Wacker vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Admira Wacker's matches and 100% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Admira Wacker and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Admira Wacker have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Admira Wacker and Sturm Graz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Admira Wacker and Sturm Graz finished level at 1-1 at BSFZ-Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Admira Wacker 1.42 xG and Sturm Graz 1.62 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Admira Wacker attack 1.06 / defence 0.99 against Sturm Graz attack 1.31 / defence 1.06, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Admira Wacker 30% | Draw 31% | Sturm Graz 39%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Admira Wacker 60%, Sturm Graz 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Admira Wacker's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sturm Graz managed 1 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.