Admira Wacker 1-2 Ried – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Admira Wacker at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Admira Wacker vs Ried fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Ried travel to BSFZ-Arena to take on Admira Wacker. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Admira Wacker stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Admira Wacker, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Admira Wacker at BSFZ-Arena this season: 2W 2D 2L from 6 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
Ried — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried away from home this season: 0W 2D 5L from 7 away games — 0.29 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.29 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Admira Wacker 1.00 PPG, Ried 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Admira Wacker, 1 for Ried and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Ried winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Admira Wacker trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games).
Ried trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Admira Wacker 62% and Ried 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Admira Wacker 54% | Ried 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Admira Wacker 1.77 xG and Ried 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Admira Wacker attack 0.827 / defence 0.870 | Ried attack 0.646 / defence 1.712. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.437. Ried bring a strong defensive rating of 1.712 — this is suppressing Admira Wacker's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Admira Wacker games / 13 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Admira Wacker 58% | Draw 27% | Ried 15%. Fair-value odds: Admira Wacker 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | Ried 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Admira Wacker (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Admira Wacker at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Admira Wacker 33% | Ried 71%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Admira Wacker vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: BSFZ-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Admira Wacker 58% | Draw 27% | Ried 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Admira Wacker 1.77 / Ried 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Admira Wacker attack 0.827 / def 0.870 | Ried attack 0.646 / def 1.712 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Admira Wacker (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Admira Wacker xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Ried xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Admira Wacker vs Ried kick off?
Admira Wacker vs Ried kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at BSFZ-Arena.
What was the final score in Admira Wacker vs Ried?
Admira Wacker 1 - 2 Ried.
Where is Admira Wacker vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at BSFZ-Arena.
What competition is Admira Wacker vs Ried part of?
Admira Wacker vs Ried is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Admira Wacker vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives Admira Wacker a 58% chance of winning, Ried a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Admira Wacker the favourite.
Will both teams score in Admira Wacker vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Admira Wacker and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will Admira Wacker vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and Ried?
Record (1 meetings): Admira Wacker 0W | Draws 0 | Ried 1W.
What form are Admira Wacker and Ried in?
Admira Wacker (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Ried (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Admira Wacker's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Ried's defensive record (1.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Ried's attack versus Admira Wacker's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Admira Wacker Win
58%
1.72
27%
3.68
15%
6.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Admira Wacker xG
Total xG
2.58
0.81
Ried xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
6.85
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
2%
40.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 10.8 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Admira Wacker vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Admira Wacker and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Admira Wacker and 0.81 for Ried, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Admira Wacker vs Ried?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Admira Wacker's recent record stands at 3W 5D 5L from 13 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Admira Wacker is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ried, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 5L across 13 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Admira Wacker on 1.08 PPG, Ried on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Admira Wacker have managed 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ried's away record stands at 0W 2D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ried's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Admira Wacker come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Admira Wacker are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.31 scored and 2.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Admira Wacker have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Ried in 77%.
Last 13 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Admira Wacker
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Admira Wacker and Ried in coming into this match?
Admira Wacker have gone 3W 5D 5L in their last 13 games (1.08 PPG), while Ried have gone 3W 5D 5L in their last 13 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Admira Wacker at home or Ried away?
Admira Wacker's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Admira Wacker at home: 1.33 PPG; Ried away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Admira Wacker and Ried runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Admira Wacker's record when hosting Ried specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Admira Wacker
1
Draws
2
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Admira Wacker and Ried?
From 4 meetings on record, Admira Wacker have won 1, Ried have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Admira Wacker and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2022, when Ried 1-1 Admira Wacker.
Who has won more matches between Admira Wacker and Ried?
Ried have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Admira Wacker see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Admira Wacker 33%, Ried 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Admira Wacker and 50% for Ried.
On the defensive side: Admira Wacker keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Admira Wacker have failed to score in 33% of games; Ried in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Admira Wacker home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Admira Wacker play Ried?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Admira Wacker's recent matches and 67% of Ried's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Admira Wacker vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Admira Wacker's recent games and 50% of Ried's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Admira Wacker and Ried tend to score early?
Admira Wacker have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ried in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ried defy the odds to beat Admira Wacker 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ried beat Admira Wacker 1-2 at BSFZ-Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Admira Wacker 1.77 xG and Ried 0.81 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ried outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Admira Wacker attack 0.83 / defence 0.87 against Ried attack 0.65 / defence 1.71, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Admira Wacker 58% | Draw 27% | Ried 15%, with Admira Wacker to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Ried win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Admira Wacker 54%, Ried 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Admira Wacker's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Ried's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Admira Wacker 1.08 PPG, Ried 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ried win broke the near-deadlock. Admira Wacker (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ried (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.